Baltimore Orioles at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Coby MayoBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Jonah HeimBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 10Gelof singled to center, Williams scored.4–3
- 10Encarnacion-Strand singled to right, Henderson scored, Mayo to second.4–2
- 10Mayo singled to right, Narváez scored, Henderson to third.3–2
- 8Butler singled to left, Bolte scored, Butler to second, McNeil thrown out at home. Athletics challenged: call on the field was upheld.2–2
- 7Heim homered to right (353 feet).2–1
- 2Taveras scored on error, Narváez safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Lopez, Beavers to second.2–0
- 2Beavers singled to right, Mayo scored, Taveras to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 51%
- ML BAL -108 / ATH +101
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.1%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- BAL -104
- ATH +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.8 – 4.7 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +5 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +49 Elo | BAL 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 58.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 14th of 3031–35 | Road vs home | 25–4130th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 17th of 301495 | Elo rating | 143329th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–65 | 63–71 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–37 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 39–28 | 52–43 |
| Overs–unders | 67–62–5 | 66–62–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 12–10 ATH in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.