Baltimore Orioles at Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting4-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Athletics- Brian ServenBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jeffrey SpringsPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Henderson tripled to center, Holliday scored.8–5
- 5Henderson homered to right (413 feet), Alexander scored and Alonso scored.7–5
- 4Mayo homered to left center (388 feet), Alonso scored and Henderson scored.4–5
- 3Serven homered to right center (396 feet), White scored.1–5
- 2McNeil doubled to right, Serven scored, Bolte to third.1–3
- 1Butler doubled to right, Gelof scored and Bolte scored.1–2
- 1Henderson homered to center (413 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 59%
- ML BAL -147 / ATH +137
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 59.9%, market 58.5%
- Fair odds
- BAL -141
- ATH +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 5.4 – 4.6 ATH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | ATH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −32 | BAL: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATH: Jeffrey Springs: team allows 1.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +70 Elo | BAL 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 57.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 58.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | ATH |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.319th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.729th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.430th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 13th of 3033–35 | Road vs home | 25–4330th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 16th of 301497 | Elo rating | 143129th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  ATH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–66 | 64–72 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 31–38 | 11–28 |
| Underdog | 39–28 | 53–44 |
| Overs–unders | 67–64–5 | 66–64–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 14–10 ATH in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 24.