Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Jeff McNeilBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady BassoPitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Rangers- Brandon NimmoBatting4-5, 5 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9McNeil homered to right center (392 feet), Stefanic scored.5–8
- 8Butler hit sacrifice fly to center, Cortes scored.3–8
- 7Stefanic singled to right, Gelof scored, Heim to second.2–8
- 6Nimmo singled to right, Langford scored.1–8
- 6Seager hit sacrifice fly to left, Díaz scored.1–7
- 6O'Hoppe hit sacrifice fly to left, Carter scored, Díaz to third.1–6
- 5Duran grounded out to second, Langford scored, Nimmo to second.1–5
- 5Nimmo singled to right, Pederson scored and Seager scored, Langford to third.1–4
- 3Nimmo singled to right, Seager scored.1–2
- 3Butler singled to center, Gelof scored.1–1
- 1Nimmo doubled to left, Seager scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 66%
- ML ATH +182 / TEX -224
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.3 pts
- TEX: Elo 57.8%, market 66.1%
- Fair odds
- TEX -195
- ATH +195 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.0 – 4.5 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1427 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +22 | −1 | ATH: Brady Basso: team allows 1.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · TEX: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +55 Elo | TEX 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 64.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 66.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.128th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.321st of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 3028–41 | Road vs home | 37–2910th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149229th of 30 |
| 29th of 301427 | Elo rating | 148722nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–74 | 59–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 26–50 |
| Underdog | 53–46 | 33–29 |
| Overs–unders | 68–64–6 | 67–61–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 21–29 TEX in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 50.