Athletics at Texas Rangers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TEX.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Athletics- Henry BolteBatting3-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Jacob LopezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Rangers- Ezequiel DuranBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cody BradfordPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Williams doubled to right, McNeil scored.9–2
- 5Williams homered to left (358 feet), McNeil scored.8–2
- 5Heim homered to center (421 feet).6–2
- 4Bolte homered to right (349 feet), Serven scored.5–2
- 3Gelof homered to left (389 feet).3–2
- 3Bolte homered to right center (404 feet), Clarke scored.2–2
- 2Foscue homered to center (424 feet).0–2
- 1Duran homered to left (406 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 60%
- ML ATH +137 / TEX -166
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.2 pts
- TEX: Elo 61.9%, market 59.7%
- Fair odds
- TEX -148
- ATH +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATH 3.3 – 4.2 TEX
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATH | TEX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1425 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +10 | ATH: Jacob Lopez: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TEX: Cody Bradford: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +84 Elo | TEX 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 59.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 59.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATH | Stat | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 24th of 3028–42 | Road vs home | 38–299th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149129th of 30 |
| 29th of 301425 | Elo rating | 148922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATH |  TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–75 | 60–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 11–28 | 27–50 |
| Underdog | 53–47 | 33–29 |
| Overs–unders | 69–64–6 | 68–61–10 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATH 21–30 TEX in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 51.