Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Riley tripled to center, Albies scored.5–4
- 8Acuña Jr. homered to left center (414 feet), Yastrzemski scored and Baldwin scored.4–4
- 7Schwarber homered to right (371 feet).1–4
- 7Hill homered to left (388 feet).1–3
- 6Acuña Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Yastrzemski scored.1–2
- 1Bohm doubled to left, Turner scored.0–2
- 1Arraez hit sacrifice fly to center, Schwarber scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML ATL -107 / PHI -112
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.0%, market 50.5%
- Fair odds
- PHI -102
- ATL +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 4.0 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −1 | ATL: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +21 Elo | PHI 53.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3035–34 | Road vs home | 39–3110th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 30 |
| 7th of 301533 | Elo rating | 15396th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–63 | 65–77 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 47–50 | 49–58 |
| Underdog | 32–13 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders | 63–72–7 | 63–70–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 2–7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 27–24 PHI in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 31 of 51.