Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting4-4, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Jordan LawlarBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stott hit sacrifice fly to left, Bohm scored.7–1
- 8Harper singled to right, Crawford scored.6–1
- 8Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to right, Realmuto scored.5–1
- 8Crawford singled to center, Stott scored, Realmuto to third.4–1
- 5Lawlar homered to left center (385 feet).3–1
- 5Bohm singled to right, Harper scored, Arraez to second.3–0
- 1Arraez grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Turner scored, Harper out at second.2–0
- 1Turner doubled to left, Schwarber scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -137 / ARI +114
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- ARI +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 3.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +20 | PHI: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 1.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +4 Elo | PHI 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 4th of 3039–30 | Road vs home | 39–298th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 6th of 301538 | Elo rating | 151010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–75 | 75–64 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 47–56 | 24–38 |
| Underdog | 16–19 | 51–26 |
| Overs–unders | 62–68–8 | 58–73–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 15–16 ARI in their last 31 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 31.