Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryson StottBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 3Moreno doubled to left, Perdomo scored.2–1
- 3Harper doubled to center, Stubbs scored, Schwarber to third.2–0
- 2Stott homered to right (464 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 51%
- ML PHI -106 / ARI -101
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.6%, market 50.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -102
- ARI +102 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 4.0 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +6 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.23 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +3 Elo | ARI 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 50.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | 0.015th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 5th of 3038–30 | Road vs home | 39–288th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 6th of 301537 | Elo rating | 151110th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–75 | 75–63 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 47–56 | 24–37 |
| Underdog | 15–19 | 51–26 |
| Overs–unders | 62–67–8 | 58–72–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 14–16 ARI in their last 30 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 30.