Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Nationals- James WoodBatting1-4
- Brad LordPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Murphy singled to left, Albies scored, Hicklen to second.9–0
- 8Riley singled to left, Murphy scored and Yastrzemski scored.8–0
- 7Acuña Jr. homered to left center (379 feet), Kim scored and Baldwin scored.6–0
- 6Murphy homered to left (367 feet), Acuña Jr. scored and Harris II scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 56%
- ML ATL -142 / WSH +118
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.7%, market 56.1%
- Fair odds
- ATL -128
- WSH +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.0 – 4.5 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +5 | ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Brad Lord: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +33 Elo | ATL 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 56.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 4th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 11th of 3033–33 | Road vs home | 33–3926th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 7th of 301529 | Elo rating | 147625th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–62 | 81–60 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 46–50 | 21–18 |
| Underdog | 31–12 | 60–42 |
| Overs–unders | 63–70–6 | 73–60–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 30–21 WSH in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 29 of 51.