Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Ronald Acuna Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 7Riley homered to left center (428 feet).2–4
- 4Schwarber homered to right (435 feet).1–4
- 3Acuña Jr. homered to left center (450 feet).1–3
- 2Schwarber grounded out to first, Hill scored.0–3
- 1Realmuto walked, Turner scored, Bohm to second, Arraez to third. Atlanta Braves challenged: call on the field was upheld.0–2
- 1Arraez singled to right, Schwarber scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML ATL +137 / PHI -166
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 54.6%, market 59.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -148
- ATL +148 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.6 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +7 | ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +32 Elo | PHI 54.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3035–33 | Road vs home | 38–3111th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 7th of 301534 | Elo rating | 15386th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–62 | 64–77 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 47–50 | 48–58 |
| Underdog | 32–12 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders | 63–71–7 | 63–69–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 27–23 PHI in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 50.