Philadelphia Phillies at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryan De La CruzBatting2-3
- Andrew PainterPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- James McCannBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose CabreraPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 8McCann homered to left (409 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 54%
- ML PHI -132 / ARI +109
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 49.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.4 – 4.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | −2 | PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.90 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ARI: Taylor Clarke: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +1 Elo | ARI 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.517th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | 0.016th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 4th of 3040–30 | Road vs home | 39–309th of 30 |
| 26th of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150013th of 30 |
| 6th of 301541 | Elo rating | 150710th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–75 | 75–65 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 48–56 | 24–38 |
| Underdog | 16–19 | 51–27 |
| Overs–unders | 63–68–8 | 59–73–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 16–16 ARI in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 32.