Atlanta Braves at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Mauricio DubonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris SalePitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Alec BohmBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Dubón homered to left center (390 feet), Yastrzemski scored.5–2
- 4Bohm homered to left (358 feet).3–2
- 2Bohm doubled to left, Arraez scored.3–1
- 2Acuña Jr. singled to center, Riley scored.3–0
- 2Kim grounded out to third, Dubón scored, Riley to second.2–0
- 2Riley singled to right, Thomas scored, Dubón to second, Dubón safe at third on fielding error by right fielder Harper.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML ATL +102 / PHI -123
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.4%, market 52.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -111
- ATL +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.4 – 3.6 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +10 | ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +17 Elo | PHI 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.310th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3034–33 | Road vs home | 38–3011th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149725th of 30 |
| 7th of 301532 | Elo rating | 15405th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 78–62 | 64–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 47–50 | 48–57 |
| Underdog | 31–12 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders | 63–71–6 | 63–69–8 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 26–23 PHI in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 30 of 49.