Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brent SuterPitching3.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Palacios homered to right (381 feet).7–1
- 8Díaz homered to left (393 feet).6–1
- 6Díaz grounded out to second, Mateo scored.5–1
- 3Mesa Jr. singled to center, Simpson scored.4–1
- 3Hicks homered to right center (407 feet), Caminero scored.3–1
- 1Baldwin singled to right, Acuña Jr. scored, Olson to third.1–1
- 1Caminero homered to left center (455 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML TB -103 / ATL -117
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.6%, market 51.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -106
- TB +106 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.2 – 4.3 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −14 | TB: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: AJ Smith-Shawver: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +25 Elo | ATL 53.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 51.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TB | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.84th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 7th of 3038–33 | Road vs home | 48–241st of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 8th of 301522 | Elo rating | 15337th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 79–64 | 81–63 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 48–42 | 47–50 |
| Underdog | 31–22 | 34–13 |
| Overs–unders | 67–71–5 | 64–73–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 4–5 ATL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.