Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- J.T. RealmutoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Andrew PainterPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olson homered to left center (400 feet), Acuña Jr. scored.9–4
- 8Turner singled to right, Crawford scored, Schwarber to second.9–2
- 8Schwarber singled to right, De La Cruz scored and Realmuto scored, Crawford to third.8–2
- 8Realmuto singled to center, Stott scored, De La Cruz to second.6–2
- 8Stott singled to center, Bohm scored.5–2
- 8Bohm doubled to center, Harper scored and Turner scored.4–2
- 7Olson singled to left, Harris II scored.2–2
- 2Realmuto homered to left center (405 feet), Marsh scored.2–1
- 1Baldwin hit sacrifice fly to right, Harris II scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML PHI +109 / ATL -131
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 55.3%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.6 – 4.9 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | +7 | PHI: Andrew Painter: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ATL: Grant Holmes: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +37 Elo | ATL 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 53.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.68th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 3040–33 | Road vs home | 51–262nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150110th of 30 |
| 6th of 301534 | Elo rating | 15337th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–82 | 83–66 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 50–62 | 49–53 |
| Underdog | 17–20 | 34–13 |
| Overs–unders | 68–72–9 | 67–75–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 25–30 ATL in their last 55 meetings; the forecast called 34 of 55.