Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Hunter BrownPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Phillies- Kyle SchwarberBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching6.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Paredes singled to center, Peña scored.7–11
- 6Schwarber homered to right (408 feet), Sosa scored, Crawford scored and De La Cruz scored.6–11
- 6De La Cruz walked, Stott scored, Crawford to second, Sosa to third.6–7
- 6Sosa singled to right, Arraez scored, Stott to second.6–6
- 5Turner homered to right center (374 feet).6–5
- 4Smith homered to center (416 feet), Varsho scored.6–4
- 3Arraez singled to center, Harper scored.4–4
- 3Harper singled to right, De La Cruz scored on error and Turner scored on error, Harper safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Smith.4–3
- 3Turner singled to right, Realmuto scored, De La Cruz to third.4–1
- 3Diaz singled to center, Altuve scored.4–0
- 3Paredes homered to left center (409 feet), Alvarez scored.3–0
- 3Alvarez doubled to center, Smith scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 59%
- ML HOU +133 / PHI -161
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.8%, market 59.0%
- Fair odds
- PHI -144
- HOU +144 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.6 – 4.4 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +7 | HOU: Hunter Brown: team allows 0.69 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +47 Elo | PHI 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.515th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 8th of 3037–33 | Road vs home | 40–3312th of 30 |
| 30th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Elo rating | 15386th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–70 | 65–80 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–41 | 49–61 |
| Underdog | 47–29 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders | 72–64–9 | 65–71–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6–2 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–4 PHI in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.