Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-5, 3 RBI
- Ethan PeckoPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 10Moreno singled to center, Vargas scored.4–3
- 8Marte homered to right (388 feet).3–3
- 7Nootbaar doubled to right, Tawa scored, Waldschmidt to third.2–3
- 5Paredes reached on infield single to second, Peña scored, Alvarez to third.1–3
- 5Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to center, Tawa scored.1–2
- 3Paredes singled to right, Diaz scored and Trammell scored, Alvarez to second.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 51%
- ML ARI -113 / HOU -106
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- ARI: Elo 48.7%, market 50.8%
- Fair odds
- ARI -103
- HOU +103 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.5 – 4.5 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +2 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Ethan Pecko: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +9 Elo | HOU 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 50.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 50.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 50.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 16th of 3033–37 | Road vs home | 37–3619th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 11th of 301507 | Elo rating | 150213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–66 | 74–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–38 | 28–39 |
| Underdog | 52–28 | 46–29 |
| Overs–unders | 59–75–8 | 71–62–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–9 HOU in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 10.