Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Gabriel MorenoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Merrill KellyPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Astros- Yainer DiazBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 4Moreno homered to left center (387 feet).1–3
- 3Altuve hit sacrifice fly to left, Alvarez scored.0–3
- 3Paredes doubled to left, Peña scored, Alvarez to third.0–2
- 3Diaz homered to left center (383 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 54%
- ML ARI +109 / HOU -131
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.5%, market 54.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -119
- ARI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 4.3 – 4.7 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −20 | ARI: Merrill Kelly: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.98 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +3 Elo | ARI 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 53.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 54.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.511th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3033–36 | Road vs home | 36–3619th of 30 |
| 11th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 148930th of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Elo rating | 150112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–65 | 73–68 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–38 | 27–39 |
| Underdog | 52–27 | 46–29 |
| Overs–unders | 59–74–8 | 71–61–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 1–8 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.