Arizona Diamondbacks at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eduardo RodriguezPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Wade Jr. singled to left, Altuve scored, Walker to second.3–2
- 3Arenado homered to left center (385 feet), Marte scored.3–1
- 2McCann hit sacrifice fly to left, Carroll scored.1–1
- 1Alvarez homered to right (337 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 52%
- ML ARI +101 / HOU -121
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 48.2%, market 52.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -110
- ARI +110 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.9 – 4.1 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | −11 | ARI: Eduardo Rodriguez: team allows 0.64 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +12 Elo | ARI 51.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 52.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 52.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ARI | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.320th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 14th of 3034–37 | Road vs home | 37–3719th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149030th of 30 |
| 11th of 301508 | Elo rating | 150113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–66 | 74–69 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 24–38 | 28–40 |
| Underdog | 53–28 | 46–29 |
| Overs–unders | 59–76–8 | 71–63–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 2–9 HOU in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.