Houston Astros at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Cam SmithBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristian JavierPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Luis ArraezBatting1-3
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith homered to center (421 feet).2–1
- 5Stott grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Arraez scored, Bohm out at third.1–1
- 2Trammell doubled to right, Walker scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 63%
- ML HOU +159 / PHI -194
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 61.2%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- PHI -171
- HOU +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.7 – 4.8 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | +7 | HOU: Cristian Javier: team allows 0.67 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +79 Elo | PHI 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.514th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.210th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 9th of 3037–34 | Road vs home | 41–3312th of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 149824th of 30 |
| 15th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15405th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–71 | 66–80 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–41 | 50–61 |
| Underdog | 47–30 | 16–19 |
| Overs–unders | 73–64–9 | 66–71–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–6–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–5 PHI in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.