Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tim MayzaPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Braves- Michael Harris IIBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Harris II homered to right (367 feet), Keirsey Jr. scored and Albies scored.2–12
- 8Crawford homered to right (421 feet).2–9
- 6Albies hit sacrifice fly to center, Acuña Jr. scored.1–9
- 4Acuña Jr. singled to center, Baldwin scored.1–8
- 4Baldwin doubled to right, Kim scored and Murphy scored.1–7
- 4Riley scored on Holman wild pitch, Kim to second on wild pitch by Holman, Murphy to third on wild pitch by Holman.1–5
- 4Riley scored on Holman wild pitch, Kim to second on wild pitch by Holman, Murphy to third on wild pitch by Holman.1–5
- 4Dubón scored on error, Murphy safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Stott, Riley safe at third on error.1–4
- 4Dubón singled to left, Albies scored and Harris II scored.1–3
- 4Acuña Jr. homered to left (353 feet).1–1
- 1Harper homered to center (426 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML PHI +120 / ATL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.9 pts
- ATL: Elo 51.7%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -130
- PHI +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1530 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +1 | PHI: Tim Mayza: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · ATL: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +12 Elo | ATL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.2 | Margin | +0.85th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 5th of 3040–32 | Road vs home | 50–263rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15019th of 30 |
| 6th of 301538 | Elo rating | 15307th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–81 | 82–66 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 50–62 | 48–53 |
| Underdog | 17–19 | 34–13 |
| Overs–unders | 67–72–9 | 66–75–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 25–29 ATL in their last 54 meetings; the forecast called 33 of 54.