Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Derek HillBatting1-2, 3 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chris SalePitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Baldwin doubled to center, Kim scored.5–6
- 11Kim singled to left, Albies scored.5–5
- 11Arraez singled to left, Stubbs scored, Harper to second.5–4
- 10Dubón hit sacrifice fly to center, Hicklen scored.4–4
- 10Crawford singled to center, Stott scored.4–3
- 9Murphy singled to center, Keirsey Jr. scored on fielding error by center fielder Hill, Murphy to second.3–3
- 7Riley homered to left center (434 feet).3–2
- 2Hill doubled to center, Realmuto scored, Sosa scored and De La Cruz scored.3–1
- 1Olson homered to left (352 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 62%
- ML PHI +155 / ATL -188
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.3%, market 62.5%
- Fair odds
- ATL -166
- PHI +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 2.9 – 4.1 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1539 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +19 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Chris Sale: team allows 0.94 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +30 Elo | ATL 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 63.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 62.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PHI | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.75th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 5th of 3040–31 | Road vs home | 49–263rd of 30 |
| 24th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 5th of 301539 | Elo rating | 15297th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–81 | 82–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 50–62 | 48–52 |
| Underdog | 16–19 | 34–13 |
| Overs–unders | 66–72–9 | 65–75–7 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 25–28 ATL in their last 53 meetings; the forecast called 32 of 53.