Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Drake BaldwinBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Cubs- Matt ShawBatting2-2
- Kevin GausmanPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baldwin homered to right (376 feet), Albies scored.6–3
- 7Albies homered to right center (396 feet), Riley scored.4–3
- 6Acuña Jr. homered to left center (371 feet), Baldwin scored.2–3
- 4Amaya hit sacrifice fly to left, Shaw scored.0–3
- 4Ramirez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Busch scored, Shaw to second, Shaw safe at third on throwing error by shortstop Dubón.0–2
- 2Ramirez singled to center, Busch scored, Shaw to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 56%
- ML ATL +120 / CHC -144
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- CHC: Elo 54.8%, market 56.5%
- Fair odds
- CHC -130
- ATL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.0 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −4 | ATL: Martin Perez: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +33 Elo | CHC 54.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 56.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | +0.93rd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 11th of 3036–36 | Road vs home | 44–327th of 30 |
| 10th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 9th of 301528 | Elo rating | 15464th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 83–68 | 75–76 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 49–54 | 40–60 |
| Underdog | 34–14 | 35–16 |
| Overs–unders | 69–75–7 | 81–61–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 12–10 CHC in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.