Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Pete Crow-ArmstrongBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- David PetersonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Reds- JJ BledayBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carson SpiersPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki homered to center (440 feet).9–1
- 5Crow-Armstrong homered to center (411 feet), Ramirez scored.8–1
- 5Conforto homered to right center (386 feet).6–1
- 4Bleday homered to right center (386 feet).5–1
- 3Ramirez singled to center, Bregman scored and Happ scored, Hoerner to third.5–0
- 3Hoerner walked, Busch scored, Happ to second, Bregman to third. Chicago Cubs challenged: call on the field was overturned.3–0
- 3Happ singled to right, Crow-Armstrong scored, Bregman to second, Busch to third.2–0
- 1Bregman singled to left, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML CHC -168 / CIN +139
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.8%, market 60.0%
- Fair odds
- CHC -150
- CIN +150 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 5.2 – 4.3 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | −13 | CHC: David Peterson: team allows 0.63 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.65 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +62 Elo | CHC 58.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 60.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 60.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–723rd of 30 |
| 8th of 3041–36 | Road vs home | 38–4223rd of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15072nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301545 | Elo rating | 146626th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–78 | 75–80 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 42–62 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 35–16 | 59–50 |
| Overs–unders | 84–62–9 | 81–70–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 24–27 CIN in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 51.