Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-3
- Rhett LowderPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Freeland homered to left (345 feet).4–0
- 3T. Hernández homered to left (374 feet), Tucker scored.3–0
- 2Feduccia singled to center, Muncy scored, Edman to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 68%
- ML LAD -251 / CIN +202
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.4%, market 68.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -216
- CIN +216 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 3.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −20 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.99 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +111 Elo | LAD 65.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 67.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 68.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.228th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3044–31 | Road vs home | 36–3922nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301563 | Elo rating | 146627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–84 | 73–77 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 58–81 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 57–47 |
| Overs–unders | 69–78–3 | 80–68–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 16–9 CIN in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 25.
- Sep 14LAD 4 @ CIN 1Picked LAD 66%Hit
- Sep 9CIN 1 @ LAD 14Picked LAD 72%Hit
- Sep 8CIN 2 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 73%Hit
- Sep 7CIN 3 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 62%Hit
- Oct 1CIN 4 @ LAD 8PlayoffsPicked LAD 70%Hit
- Sep 30CIN 5 @ LAD 10PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Hit
- Aug 27CIN 1 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 62%Hit
- Aug 26CIN 3 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 62%Hit