Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4
- Andrew AbbottPitching2.0 IP, 7 ER, 0 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Dustin MayPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Contreras homered to left (388 feet), Ortiz scored and Hamilton scored.0–20
- 5Mitchell homered to center (420 feet), Contreras scored, Lara scored and Pratt scored.0–17
- 5Contreras singled to center, Chourio scored and Hamilton scored.0–13
- 5Turang doubled to center, Ortiz scored, Chourio to third.0–11
- 5Chourio singled to left, Mitchell scored, Ortiz to second.0–10
- 4Bauers singled to center, Turang scored on fielding error by center fielder Jorge.0–9
- 2Bauers homered to center (412 feet), Vaughn scored.0–8
- 2Turang homered to right center (382 feet), Mitchell scored and Chourio scored.0–6
- 2Chourio hit a ground rule double, Pratt scored, Mitchell to third.0–3
- 1Vaughn doubled to left, Turang scored on fielding error by left fielder Bleday.0–2
- 1Contreras hit sacrifice fly to center, Chourio scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 64%
- ML CIN +169 / MIL -207
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 66.0%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- MIL -181
- CIN +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.3 – 4.7 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −10 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.48 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Dustin May: team allows 0.50 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +115 Elo | MIL 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.03rd of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.22nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 17th of 3033–39 | Road vs home | 50–241st of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149922nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301470 | Elo rating | 15681st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–74 | 77–70 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 53–59 |
| Underdog | 56–44 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 78–66–2 | 65–76–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 15–34 MIL in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 26 of 49.