Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Will SmithBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5T. Hernández singled to center, Betts scored, Smith to third.2–3
- 3De La Cruz homered to left center (444 feet), Myers scored.2–2
- 2Edman hit by pitch, T. Hernández scored, E. Hernández to second, Muncy to third.0–2
- 1Smith homered to left (392 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 73%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 73%
- ML CIN +249 / LAD -314
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 66.0%, market 72.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -265
- CIN +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 2.9 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +5 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +115 Elo | LAD 66.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 73.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 72.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 72.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 15th of 3033–37 | Road vs home | 45–284th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 26th of 301474 | Elo rating | 15602nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–73 | 63–81 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 55–78 |
| Underdog | 55–43 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 77–65–2 | 66–75–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–13 LAD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 22.
- Sep 7CIN 3 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 62%Hit
- Oct 1CIN 4 @ LAD 8PlayoffsPicked LAD 70%Hit
- Sep 30CIN 5 @ LAD 10PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Hit
- Aug 27CIN 1 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 62%Hit
- Aug 26CIN 3 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 62%Hit
- Aug 25CIN 0 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 57%Hit
- Jul 30LAD 2 @ CIN 5Picked LAD 61%Miss
- Jul 29LAD 5 @ CIN 4Picked LAD 58%Hit