St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Ivan HerreraBatting2-5
- Quinn MathewsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting4-5
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9T. Hernández doubled to center, Betts scored and Edman scored.2–3
- 5Edman scored on Mathews wild pitch, T. Hernández to second on wild pitch by Mathews.2–1
- 5Edman scored on Mathews wild pitch, T. Hernández to second on wild pitch by Mathews.2–1
- 3Urías singled to left, Herrera scored, Bernal to second.2–0
- 1Báez singled to right, Fermín scored, Herrera to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 72%
- ML STL +237 / LAD -298
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.2%, market 71.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -252
- STL +252 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | 0 | STL: Quinn Mathews: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +79 Elo | LAD 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 73.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 71.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 71.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 8th of 3036–32 | Road vs home | 40–287th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 30 |
| 19th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15542nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–63 | 60–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–34 | 52–76 |
| Underdog | 63–29 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 61–71–8 | 63–74–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 13–12 LAD in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 25.