St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Thomas SaggeseBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Gordon GraceffoPitching3.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Edman grounded out to shortstop, Smith scored.8–6
- 10Báez doubled to left, Saggese scored and Church scored.8–5
- 10Saggese reached on infield single to second, Fermín scored, Church to second.6–5
- 8Burleson hit sacrifice fly to right, Báez scored.5–5
- 7Bernal homered to right center (377 feet), Walker scored.4–5
- 6Betts homered to left center (392 feet), Edman scored.2–5
- 6Saggese homered to center (396 feet), Church scored.2–3
- 1Freeman homered to center (416 feet), Ohtani scored and Edman scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 72%
- ML STL +246 / LAD -311
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.0 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.3%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -262
- STL +262 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 2.9 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +15 | STL: Brycen Mautz (no track record yet) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +95 Elo | LAD 63.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 68.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.84th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 9th of 3035–32 | Road vs home | 40–276th of 30 |
| 1st of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 21st of 301491 | Elo rating | 15562nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–63 | 60–78 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 14–34 | 52–75 |
| Underdog | 62–29 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 60–71–8 | 62–74–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 12–12 LAD in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.