St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Thomas SaggeseBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting2-3, 4 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching3.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Edman singled to right, Smith scored.13–8
- 9Tucker hit sacrifice fly to left, Betts scored.13–7
- 9Smith grounded into fielder's choice to second, E. Hernández scored, Feduccia out at second, Betts to third.13–6
- 8Fermín hit sacrifice fly to left, Church scored.13–5
- 8Saggese scored on Wrobleski wild pitch, Church to third on wild pitch by Wrobleski.12–5
- 8Saggese scored on Wrobleski wild pitch, Church to third on wild pitch by Wrobleski.12–5
- 7Smith doubled to left, Ohtani scored, Betts to third.11–5
- 7Báez homered to center (404 feet).11–4
- 5Betts doubled to left, Freeland scored, Ohtani to third.10–4
- 5Saggese homered to right center (382 feet).10–3
- 4Walker homered to center (409 feet), Herrera scored.9–3
- 3Betts doubled to first, Edman scored, Freeman scored and Ohtani scored.7–3
- 3Church reached on infield single to second, Bernal scored, Urías out at third on runner's fielder's choice.7–0
- 3Saggese hit sacrifice fly to left, Báez scored.6–0
- 3Bernal singled to center, Herrera scored and Walker scored, Báez to third.5–0
- 3Herrera singled to center, Fermín scored.3–0
- 2Saggese homered to center (415 feet).2–0
- 2Urías homered to left center (384 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 64%
- ML STL +163 / LAD -199
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.6%, market 63.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -175
- STL +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.9 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −14 | −7 | STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.69 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +97 Elo | LAD 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.82nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 10th of 3034–32 | Road vs home | 40–265th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301488 | Elo rating | 15602nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 75–63 | 60–77 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 14–34 | 52–74 |
| Underdog | 61–29 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 59–71–8 | 61–74–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–1–1 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 11–12 LAD in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 23.