Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew AlvarezPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Justin WrobleskiPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Betts homered to left center (384 feet), Call scored and Edman scored.5–7
- 6Crews hit by pitch, Ford scored, Wood to second, Young to third.5–4
- 5T. Hernández reached on infield single to shortstop, Smith scored, Freeman to second.4–4
- 5Smith singled to center, Edman scored.4–3
- 5Edman doubled to left, Muncy scored.4–2
- 4Young singled to center, Ford scored.4–1
- 4Ford doubled to left, Lile scored and House scored.3–1
- 4Abrams homered to center (415 feet).1–1
- 3Betts grounded out to third, Muncy scored, Edman to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 63%
- ML WSH +159 / LAD -194
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.9%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -171
- WSH +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1557 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −10 | WSH: Andrew Alvarez: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +85 Elo | LAD 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.93rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3034–37 | Road vs home | 43–284th of 30 |
| 4th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 27th of 301471 | Elo rating | 15572nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 82–62 | 61–81 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–18 | 53–78 |
| Underdog | 61–44 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 74–61–9 | 64–75–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–16 LAD in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 16 of 23.