Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- James WoodBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Jackson KentPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Kyle TuckerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wood doubled to right, Tena scored.3–5
- 9Vivas grounded out to second, Ortiz scored, Tena to second.2–5
- 9Ortiz singled to center, House scored.1–5
- 6Tucker homered to right center (377 feet).0–5
- 4Call scored on error, Edman safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Nuñez.0–4
- 3T. Hernández doubled to center, Betts scored and E. Hernández scored.0–3
- 3Betts singled to center, Tucker scored, E. Hernández to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 70%
- ML WSH +224 / LAD -280
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.0%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -239
- WSH +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.0 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1555 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | 0 | WSH: Jackson Kent: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +108 Elo | LAD 65.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 72.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 71.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 12th of 3034–35 | Road vs home | 41–287th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149726th of 30 |
| 25th of 301473 | Elo rating | 15552nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–61 | 60–80 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–18 | 52–77 |
| Underdog | 60–43 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 73–61–8 | 63–75–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–14 LAD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.