Washington Nationals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Cade CavalliPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Dodgers- Tommy EdmanBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wood scored on error, Lile safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Betts.5–6
- 8Call hit by pitch, Betts scored, Freeland to second, Tucker to third.4–6
- 7Edman homered to right center (389 feet), Freeland scored and E. Hernández scored.4–5
- 7Lile doubled to left, Crews scored.4–2
- 4Crews doubled to left, Ruiz scored.3–2
- 4Ruiz singled to right, House scored, Ruiz to second.2–2
- 2Tena hit sacrifice fly to center, Abrams scored.1–2
- 1Feduccia singled to center, Tucker scored, T. Hernández to third.0–2
- 1T. Hernández singled to left, Freeman scored, Tucker to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML WSH +154 / LAD -188
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 63.6%, market 62.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- WSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 2.9 – 4.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1556 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | +8 | WSH: Cade Cavalli: team allows 0.68 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.40 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +97 Elo | LAD 63.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 67.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 66.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| WSH | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 14th of 3034–36 | Road vs home | 42–284th of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149727th of 30 |
| 27th of 301471 | Elo rating | 15562nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 81–62 | 61–80 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 21–18 | 53–77 |
| Underdog | 60–44 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 73–61–9 | 63–75–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 3–6–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 7–15 LAD in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.