Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Smith hit sacrifice fly to center, Muncy scored, Tucker to second, T. Hernández to third.3–6
- 8Myers grounded out to third, Rodríguez scored.3–5
- 7Suárez homered to center (403 feet).2–5
- 6T. Hernández homered to left (392 feet), Freeman scored and Muncy scored.1–5
- 5T. Hernández scored on error and Call scored on error, Rojas safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Hayes, Rojas safe at third on error.1–2
- 1De La Cruz homered to center (412 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML CIN +154 / LAD -188
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 57.8%, market 62.4%
- Fair odds
- LAD -166
- CIN +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.7 – 4.8 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1558 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | −31 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 1.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +54 Elo | LAD 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 62.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 15th of 3033–36 | Road vs home | 44–284th of 30 |
| 7th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 24th of 301475 | Elo rating | 15582nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 71–72 | 62–81 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 54–78 |
| Underdog | 55–42 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 76–65–2 | 65–75–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–12 LAD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.
- Oct 1CIN 4 @ LAD 8PlayoffsPicked LAD 70%Hit
- Sep 30CIN 5 @ LAD 10PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Hit
- Aug 27CIN 1 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 62%Hit
- Aug 26CIN 3 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 62%Hit
- Aug 25CIN 0 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 57%Hit
- Jul 30LAD 2 @ CIN 5Picked LAD 61%Miss
- Jul 29LAD 5 @ CIN 4Picked LAD 58%Hit
- Jul 28LAD 5 @ CIN 2Picked LAD 57%Hit