Cincinnati Reds at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Rhett LowderPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Dodgers- Enrique HernandezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Tucker homered to right center (378 feet).1–14
- 7E. Hernández homered to left (388 feet), Freeland scored.1–13
- 6Muncy homered to right (380 feet), Betts scored.1–11
- 4T. Hernández singled to left, Smith scored and Betts scored.1–9
- 4E. Hernández scored on Mey wild pitch.1–7
- 4E. Hernández scored on Mey wild pitch.1–7
- 4E. Hernández doubled to left, Feduccia scored and Freeland scored.1–6
- 4Freeland doubled to center, Tucker scored, Feduccia to third.1–4
- 4De La Cruz homered to center (403 feet).1–3
- 3Betts homered to left center (382 feet), Smith scored.0–3
- 2Freeland grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, T. Hernández scored, Feduccia out at second, Tucker to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 72%
- ML CIN +239 / LAD -301
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- LAD: Elo 67.3%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -254
- CIN +254 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.0 – 5.0 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1560 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +9 | CIN: Rhett Lowder: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +125 Elo | LAD 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 71.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 26th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−0.8 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3033–38 | Road vs home | 46–284th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149628th of 30 |
| 25th of 301473 | Elo rating | 15602nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–73 | 63–82 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 55–79 |
| Underdog | 56–43 | 8–3 |
| Overs–unders | 77–66–2 | 66–76–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 9–14 LAD in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.
- Sep 8CIN 2 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 73%Hit
- Sep 7CIN 3 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 62%Hit
- Oct 1CIN 4 @ LAD 8PlayoffsPicked LAD 70%Hit
- Sep 30CIN 5 @ LAD 10PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Hit
- Aug 27CIN 1 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 62%Hit
- Aug 26CIN 3 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 62%Hit
- Aug 25CIN 0 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 57%Hit
- Jul 30LAD 2 @ CIN 5Picked LAD 61%Miss