Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Josue De PaulaBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Marlins- Agustin RamirezBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez homered to left center (407 feet), Sanoja scored.4–6
- 9Sanoja doubled to left, Marsee scored and Edwards scored.4–4
- 9Betts hit a ground rule double, Freeland scored.4–2
- 8Lopez singled to center, Mack scored and Ruiz scored, Hernández to second.3–2
- 4De Paula homered to right (416 feet), Smith scored and Tucker scored.3–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 55%
- ML LAD -137 / MIA +114
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 54.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- LAD -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −26 | −5 | LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 1.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +34 Elo | LAD 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 56.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 56.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.417th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 1st of 3043–30 | Road vs home | 44–338th of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301563 | Elo rating | 149019th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–83 | 72–77 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 57–80 | 29–37 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 43–40 |
| Overs–unders | 68–77–3 | 75–70–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 15–8 MIA in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 23.