New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Christopher MorelBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Robert StockPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Joe MackBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Janson JunkPitching3.0 IP, 8 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsee singled to right, Lopez scored.15–14
- 9Lopez tripled to right, Conine scored.15–13
- 9Conine doubled to right, Stowers scored.15–12
- 8Pauley singled to center, Sanoja scored, Caissie to third.15–11
- 8Caissie singled to right, Lopez scored, Sanoja to third.15–10
- 8Torrens reached on infield single to shortstop, Young scored, Ewing to third.15–9
- 7Mack homered to right center (393 feet).14–9
- 7Lindor homered to right (351 feet), Morel scored and Torrens scored.14–8
- 7Torrens singled to right, Semien scored, Morel to third.11–8
- 7Morel singled to center, Young scored, Semien to second.10–8
- 7Ewing hit sacrifice fly to center, Benge scored, Young to third.9–8
- 6Marsee singled to left, Conine scored and Hernández scored, Lopez to second.8–8
- 6Lopez walked, Mack scored, Conine to second, Hernández to third.8–6
- 6Conine singled to right, Pauley scored, Hernández to second, Mack to third.8–5
- 6Caissie homered to center (406 feet).8–4
- 4Mack singled to center, Caissie scored and Marsee scored, Pauley to second.8–3
- 4Pauley singled to right, Lopez scored, Caissie to second, Marsee to third.8–1
- 3Morel homered to left (405 feet), Ewing scored.8–0
- 2Benge grounded out to first, Lindor scored, Bichette to second.6–0
- 2Bichette singled to right, Torrens scored, Lindor to third.5–0
- 2Torrens doubled to center, Ewing scored and Morel scored.4–0
- 2Baty singled to center, Semien scored, Ewing to third.2–0
- 2Ewing singled to right, Young scored, Semien to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 54%
- ML NYM +108 / MIA -131
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- MIA: Elo 50.6%, market 54.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -118
- NYM +118 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.1 – 4.4 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −5 | NYM: Robert Stock: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · MIA: Janson Junk: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +4 Elo | MIA 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 52.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 54.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.113th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 16th of 3033–38 | Road vs home | 43–317th of 30 |
| 6th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150019th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 70–75 | 71–75 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–45 | 29–36 |
| Underdog | 40–30 | 42–39 |
| Overs–unders | 66–66–13 | 73–69–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 28–23 MIA in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 51.