San Francisco Giants at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting3-4, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Yunior MartePitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Mets- Francisco AlvarezBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Nolan McLeanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Alvarez homered to left (380 feet).6–10
- 8Devers homered to right (376 feet), Koss scored and Cox scored.6–9
- 7Hill singled to right, Cox scored, Eldridge to second.3–9
- 6Lindor homered to right (404 feet), Young scored.2–9
- 3Devers doubled to center, Gilbert scored and Koss scored.2–7
- 2Bichette homered to left center (395 feet), Soto scored.0–7
- 2Soto grounded into fielder's choice to first, Morabito scored, Lindor out at second.0–5
- 2Alvarez homered to right center (412 feet).0–4
- 1Vientos homered to right (369 feet), Lindor scored and Bichette scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 64%
- ML SF +168 / NYM -205
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.5%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -180
- SF +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.1 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | +9 | SF: Matt Wilkinson: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · NYM: Nolan McLean: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +39 Elo | NYM 55.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 62.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 28th of 3025–47 | Road vs home | 32–3927th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15054th of 30 |
| 26th of 301472 | Elo rating | 149320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–69 | 66–74 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 28–44 |
| Underdog | 52–41 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders | 64–64–13 | 62–65–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 10–13 NYM in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 23.