New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Juan SotoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Marlins- Jakob MarseeBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching4.1 IP, 7 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Marsee doubled to left, Mack scored.7–5
- 6Sanoja singled to center, Lopez scored on error, Sanoja to second, Sanoja safe at third on throwing error by center fielder Ewing.7–4
- 6Lopez singled to left, Navarreto scored, Hernández to second.7–3
- 6Navarreto doubled to left, Serna scored.7–2
- 6Serna doubled to center, Marsee scored.7–1
- 5Baty hit sacrifice fly to left, Young scored.7–0
- 3Baty homered to center (426 feet).6–0
- 2Soto homered to center (417 feet), Alvarez scored and Lindor scored.5–0
- 1Young singled to center, Soto scored, Bichette to second.2–0
- 1Lindor homered to center (405 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 51%
- ML NYM -105 / MIA -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- MIA: Elo 54.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIA -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.0 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +8 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +34 Elo | MIA 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.420th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 18th of 3032–38 | Road vs home | 43–307th of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 16th of 301496 | Elo rating | 149418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 69–75 | 71–74 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–45 | 29–35 |
| Underdog | 39–30 | 42–39 |
| Overs–unders | 65–66–13 | 72–69–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 27–23 MIA in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 50.