San Francisco Giants at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jung Hoo LeeBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Cesar PerdomoPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Mets- Bo BichetteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Christian ScottPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Bichette homered to left center (412 feet), Ewing scored and Soto scored.2–4
- 8Baty homered to left (360 feet).2–1
- 4Lee singled to right, Eldridge scored and Cox scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 58%
- ML SF +130 / NYM -157
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.3%, market 58.4%
- Fair odds
- NYM -141
- SF +141 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.6 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1473 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +7 | SF: Cesar Perdomo (no track record yet) · NYM: Christian Scott: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +37 Elo | NYM 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 58.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 28th of 3026–48 | Road vs home | 33–4026th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15045th of 30 |
| 26th of 301473 | Elo rating | 149218th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 73–70 | 67–75 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 29–45 |
| Underdog | 53–42 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders | 66–64–13 | 64–65–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 6–2–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 11–14 NYM in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 25.