San Francisco Giants at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Rafael DeversBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Anthony MolinaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Mets- A.J. EwingBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Zac ThorntonPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Baty doubled to left, Ewing scored and Young scored. Umpire review: call on the field was upheld.9–5
- 9McCray homered to center (420 feet).9–3
- 8Basabe homered to left center (375 feet), Eldridge scored.8–3
- 7Baty walked, Young scored, Ewing to second, Semien to third.6–3
- 5Devers homered to left (391 feet), Cox scored.6–2
- 5Koss homered to left (383 feet).4–2
- 3Koss homered to left center (368 feet), McCray scored.3–2
- 2Ewing homered to right center (407 feet), Semien scored.1–2
- 1Devers homered to right (351 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 60%
- ML SF +141 / NYM -171
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- NYM: Elo 56.2%, market 60.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -152
- SF +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 3.5 – 4.5 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −1 | SF: Anthony Molina: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYM: Zac Thornton: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +43 Elo | NYM 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 60.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.225th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.323rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 30th of 3025–48 | Road vs home | 33–3926th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15046th of 30 |
| 26th of 301470 | Elo rating | 149517th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–70 | 67–74 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–28 | 29–44 |
| Underdog | 52–42 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders | 65–64–13 | 63–65–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 5–3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 10–14 NYM in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 24.