New York Mets at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- A.J. EwingBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Jonah TongPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Graham PauleyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Eury PerezPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ewing singled to left, Semien scored.9–4
- 6Semien doubled to left, Benge scored.8–4
- 4Ewing doubled to left, Benge scored and Soto scored.7–4
- 4Bichette singled to right, Lindor scored, Soto to second.5–4
- 3Alvarez singled to center, Semien scored.4–4
- 2Pauley homered to right (372 feet), Sanoja scored and Caissie scored.3–4
- 2Sanoja tripled to center, Marsee scored.3–1
- 2Morabito singled to center, Baty scored, Morabito to second.3–0
- 1Bichette scored on throwing error by catcher Mack, Benge stole third.2–0
- 1Bichette scored on throwing error by catcher Mack, Benge stole third.2–0
- 1Bichette grounded into fielder's choice to second, Soto scored on error, Bichette second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Marlins 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIA 56%
- ML NYM +117 / MIA -141
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- MIA: Elo 56.2%, market 55.9%
- Fair odds
- MIA -127
- NYM +127 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.7 – 4.3 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | 0 | NYM: Jonah Tong: team allows 1.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · MIA: Eury Perez: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +43 Elo | MIA 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 54.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 55.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.419th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.311th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 18th of 3031–38 | Road vs home | 43–296th of 30 |
| 5th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Elo rating | 149716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 68–75 | 71–73 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 30–45 | 29–34 |
| Underdog | 38–30 | 42–39 |
| Overs–unders | 64–66–13 | 71–69–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 26–23 MIA in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 49.