Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler GlasnowPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Graham PauleyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching3.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Feduccia singled to left, De Paula scored.3–4
- 5Sanoja grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Conine scored, Marsee safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Betts, Lopez to third.2–4
- 2Lopez singled to right, Hernández scored, Conine to second.2–3
- 2Pauley homered to right center (429 feet), Caissie scored.2–2
- 1Muncy homered to center (393 feet).2–0
- 1Betts homered to left center (399 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 60%
- ML LAD -168 / MIA +138
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- LAD -149
- MIA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −6 | LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.29 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +70 Elo | LAD 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.418th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.414th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | 0.014th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 1st of 3043–29 | Road vs home | 43–339th of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150014th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301565 | Elo rating | 148920th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–82 | 71–77 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 57–79 | 29–37 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders | 68–76–3 | 75–69–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 15–7 MIA in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 22.