Los Angeles Dodgers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Kyle TuckerBatting3-3, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Blake SnellPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting4-5
- Ryan GustoPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Caissie hit sacrifice fly to left, Sanoja scored.6–2
- 7Tucker homered to right center (395 feet), Edman scored, Muncy scored and Betts scored.6–1
- 6Ramírez doubled to center, Sanoja scored.2–1
- 6Smith singled to right, Tucker scored.2–0
- 3Tucker hit sacrifice fly to left, Edman scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 65%
- ML LAD -209 / MIA +171
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.6%, market 64.7%
- Fair odds
- LAD -183
- MIA +183 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.4 – 3.1 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1563 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.13 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Gusto: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +60 Elo | LAD 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 63.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 64.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.416th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.412th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 1st of 3042–29 | Road vs home | 43–328th of 30 |
| 28th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301563 | Elo rating | 149119th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 64–82 | 71–76 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 56–79 | 29–37 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 42–39 |
| Overs–unders | 67–76–3 | 74–69–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–3–1 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 14–7 MIA in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.