Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Eugenio SuarezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon WilliamsonPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Joey OrtizBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Stephenson hit sacrifice fly to right, De La Cruz scored.4–3
- 7Bauers homered to right center (386 feet).3–3
- 6Suárez homered to right center (389 feet), De La Cruz scored and Stewart scored.3–2
- 2Ortiz homered to center (408 feet), Yelich scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 64%
- ML CIN +168 / MIL -206
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.7 pts
- MIL: Elo 65.1%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -180
- CIN +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.4 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1573 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +14 | −2 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.71 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +108 Elo | MIL 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3033–41 | Road vs home | 52–241st of 30 |
| 4th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149822nd of 30 |
| 27th of 301466 | Elo rating | 15731st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–76 | 79–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 55–59 |
| Underdog | 56–46 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 80–66–2 | 67–76–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 15–36 MIL in their last 51 meetings; the forecast called 28 of 51.