Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Juan BritoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching4.0 IP, 8 ER, 5 K
Brewers- Garrett MitchellBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Shane DrohanPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Hayes grounded into double play, third to second to first, Bleday scored, Rodríguez out at second, Brito to third.9–13
- 8Brito singled to center, Suárez scored, Bleday to second.8–13
- 8Suárez singled to right, Banfield scored.7–13
- 8Stewart scored on a passed ball by Contreras, Banfield to third on passed ball by Contreras.6–13
- 8Stewart scored on a passed ball by Contreras, Banfield to third on passed ball by Contreras.6–13
- 5Mitchell doubled to right, Bauers scored and Yelich scored, Contreras to third.5–13
- 5Yelich singled to center, Turang scored, Yelich to second, Bauers to third.5–11
- 5Bauers singled to left, Chourio scored and Pratt scored, Turang to third.5–10
- 4Contreras homered to left center (381 feet), Bauers scored and Yelich scored.5–8
- 4Brito homered to left center (409 feet), Bleday scored.5–5
- 4Bleday doubled to center, Suárez scored.3–5
- 3Pratt singled to center, Mitchell scored, Pratt safe at second on throwing error by center fielder Myers.2–5
- 3De La Cruz doubled to left, Myers scored.2–4
- 2Suárez homered to left center (402 feet).1–4
- 1Mitchell homered to right center (425 feet), Contreras scored.0–4
- 1Turang homered to center (400 feet), Chourio scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 66%
- ML CIN +178 / MIL -218
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- MIL: Elo 66.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -191
- CIN +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.8 – 5.2 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1571 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −12 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Shane Drohan: team allows 0.58 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +116 Elo | MIL 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 5.12nd of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.0 | Margin | +1.31st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3033–40 | Road vs home | 51–241st of 30 |
| 6th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149921st of 30 |
| 26th of 301468 | Elo rating | 15711st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 72–75 | 78–70 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 54–59 |
| Underdog | 56–45 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 79–66–2 | 66–76–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–3–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 15–35 MIL in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 50.