Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Reds- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Nick LodoloPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Swanson homered to left center (382 feet).5–2
- 8Hoerner singled to center, Happ scored, Hoerner to second.4–2
- 6Busch homered to right center (417 feet).3–2
- 5Hayes singled to center, Bleday scored.2–2
- 5Bleday singled to right, Suárez scored on throwing error by shortstop Swanson, Bleday to second.2–1
- 5Suzuki singled to left, Swanson scored.2–0
- 2Shaw hit sacrifice fly to center, Hoerner scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML CHC -148 / CIN +123
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.6%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -133
- CIN +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.8 – 4.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1467 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +4 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +53 Elo | CHC 57.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.127th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 8th of 3040–36 | Road vs home | 38–4122nd of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 146726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–78 | 75–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 41–62 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 35–16 | 59–49 |
| Overs–unders | 84–61–9 | 81–69–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 23–27 CIN in their last 50 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 50.