Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Clay HolmesPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Reds- Jose TrevinoBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Chase BurnsPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Trevino singled to right, Bleday scored and Suárez scored, Rodríguez to third.4–6
- 6Suárez singled to left, De La Cruz scored, Bleday to second, Stephenson to third.4–4
- 4Suzuki singled to right, Kelly scored and Swanson scored.4–3
- 3Stewart grounded into double play, shortstop to second to first, Jorge scored, De La Cruz out at second.2–3
- 3Happ homered to right center (366 feet).2–2
- 2Kelly singled to right, Hoerner scored, Conforto to second.1–2
- 1Stephenson reached on infield single to second, De La Cruz scored.0–2
- 1Stewart hit sacrifice fly to right, Jorge scored, De La Cruz to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML CHC -150 / CIN +124
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.8%, market 57.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -134
- CIN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.6 – 3.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1545 | 1465 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +20 | CHC: Clay Holmes: team allows 0.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 1.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +48 Elo | CHC 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+0.9 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 7th of 3040–35 | Road vs home | 37–4124th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301545 | Elo rating | 146526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 76–77 | 74–79 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 41–61 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 35–16 | 58–49 |
| Overs–unders | 83–61–9 | 80–69–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2–2 | 4–4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 23–26 CIN in their last 49 meetings; the forecast called 27 of 49.