Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting3-4
- Bobby MillerPitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andrew AbbottPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Friedl singled to center, De La Cruz scored, Hayes to second, Stewart thrown out at home.2–6
- 7Stewart reached on infield single to shortstop, McLain scored, De La Cruz to second.2–5
- 6Brito singled to right, Stewart scored, Stephenson to third.2–4
- 6Edman grounded out to first, Tucker scored, Freeland to second, E. Hernández to third.2–3
- 5Myers homered to right center (376 feet).1–3
- 3De La Cruz homered to right (391 feet), McLain scored.1–2
- 3Smith doubled to right, Betts scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 67%
- ML LAD -232 / CIN +188
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- LAD: Elo 65.5%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- LAD -201
- CIN +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 4.8 – 3.2 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1464 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −25 | LAD: Blake Snell: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 1.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +112 Elo | LAD 65.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 66.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 66.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.126th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.2 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 1st of 3045–31 | Road vs home | 36–4026th of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301565 | Elo rating | 146427th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–84 | 73–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 59–81 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 57–48 |
| Overs–unders | 69–79–3 | 80–69–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 17–9 CIN in their last 26 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 26.
- Sep 15LAD 4 @ CIN 0Picked LAD 68%Hit
- Sep 14LAD 4 @ CIN 1Picked LAD 66%Hit
- Sep 9CIN 1 @ LAD 14Picked LAD 72%Hit
- Sep 8CIN 2 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 73%Hit
- Sep 7CIN 3 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 62%Hit
- Oct 1CIN 4 @ LAD 8PlayoffsPicked LAD 70%Hit
- Sep 30CIN 5 @ LAD 10PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Hit
- Aug 27CIN 1 @ LAD 5Picked LAD 62%Hit