Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Kyle TuckerBatting4-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Landon KnackPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Reds- Sal StewartBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching3.1 IP, 7 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Brito grounded out to first, Stewart scored, Banfield to third.8–2
- 9Rojas homered to left center (401 feet).8–1
- 4Stewart homered to right (380 feet).7–1
- 4De Paula singled to right, T. Hernández scored, Muncy to third.7–0
- 4Muncy doubled to right, Freeman scored and Tucker scored, T. Hernández to third.6–0
- 2Tucker doubled to center, Rojas scored.4–0
- 2Freeman hit sacrifice fly to center, Freeland scored, Rojas to third.3–0
- 1Tucker homered to right center (401 feet), Freeman scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 60%
- ML LAD -172 / CIN +142
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 61.1%, market 60.5%
- Fair odds
- LAD -153
- CIN +153 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.5 – 4.5 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −12 | LAD: Justin Wrobleski: team allows 0.45 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +79 Elo | LAD 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 60.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| LAD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.226th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 5.128th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | −1.028th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3045–32 | Road vs home | 37–4022nd of 30 |
| 28th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301561 | Elo rating | 146826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–85 | 74–78 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 59–82 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 58–48 |
| Overs–unders | 69–79–4 | 80–69–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–4–1 | 5–4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 17–10 CIN in their last 27 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 27.
- Sep 16LAD 2 @ CIN 6Picked LAD 67%Miss
- Sep 15LAD 4 @ CIN 0Picked LAD 68%Hit
- Sep 14LAD 4 @ CIN 1Picked LAD 66%Hit
- Sep 9CIN 1 @ LAD 14Picked LAD 72%Hit
- Sep 8CIN 2 @ LAD 3Picked LAD 73%Hit
- Sep 7CIN 3 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 62%Hit
- Oct 1CIN 4 @ LAD 8PlayoffsPicked LAD 70%Hit
- Sep 30CIN 5 @ LAD 10PlayoffsPicked LAD 63%Hit