Atlanta Braves at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Matt OlsonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tyler MahlePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Peter LambertPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Olson homered to left center (383 feet), Baldwin scored.6–2
- 8Paredes singled to left, Wade Jr. scored, Alvarez to second.4–2
- 7Acuña Jr. homered to left (369 feet), Baldwin scored.4–1
- 4Paredes singled to center, Alvarez scored.2–1
- 4Harris II homered to left center (367 feet), Olson scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 52%
- ML ATL -120 / HOU +100
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- ATL: Elo 53.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -109
- HOU +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 4.1 – 3.9 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −6 | ATL: Tyler Mahle: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Peter Lambert: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +24 Elo | ATL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| ATL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.516th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 11th of 3037–37 | Road vs home | 39–3920th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149230th of 30 |
| 9th of 301528 | Elo rating | 149615th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 84–69 | 79–74 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 49–54 | 30–42 |
| Underdog | 35–15 | 49–32 |
| Overs–unders | 71–75–7 | 74–70–9 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 4–5 HOU in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 9.