Houston Astros at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Isaac ParedesBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching4.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Velázquez homered to left center (439 feet).4–14
- 8Allen homered to left center (371 feet).3–14
- 7Aranda homered to right center (415 feet), Díaz scored.2–14
- 7Díaz singled to center, Palacios scored.2–12
- 6Paredes homered to left (359 feet), Allen scored.2–11
- 5Fortes homered to left (366 feet), Madrigal scored.0–11
- 4Simpson singled to center, Mesa Jr. scored.0–9
- 4Aranda homered to left (349 feet).0–8
- 3Palacios homered to right (357 feet), Simpson scored and DeLuca scored.0–7
- 3Mesa Jr. scored on error, DeLuca safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Peña, Simpson safe at third on error.0–4
- 1Simpson grounded out to pitcher, Mesa Jr. scored.0–3
- 1Mesa Jr. tripled to right, Díaz scored and Caminero scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 55%
- ML HOU +110 / TB -133
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- TB: Elo 54.7%, market 54.5%
- Fair odds
- TB -120
- HOU +120 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 4.2 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −3 | HOU: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +33 Elo | TB 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 54.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| HOU | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 4.512th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.48th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 9th of 3038–36 | Road vs home | 49–252nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150018th of 30 |
| 15th of 301498 | Elo rating | 15298th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 77–72 | 82–66 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–41 | 49–43 |
| Underdog | 49–31 | 33–23 |
| Overs–unders | 73–67–9 | 68–75–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 12–12 TB in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 24.